Friday, November 30, 2007

Mid Term Review

The EUR/USD has already dropped to key support at 1.4725 and has bounced back up. The pair is most likely going to continue moving in a sideways range between 1.4725 and 1.4875. If some other piece of bullish USD news does happen to come out within the next day or two, the EUR/USD may drop down to support at about 1.4625, but that is where the buck stops.

You will see similar movement with the USD versus the Japanese yen (JPY) and the CHF. Both the USD/JPY and the USD/CHF have risen to key levels of resistance and will most likely turn back around and fall back into sideways trading ranges.

Don't try and chase this bullish USD move just yet. You will find some trading opportunities as these pairs trade in their ranges, but you should keep you time horizon on your trades a little shorter.


Taken from http://www.truenorth-forex.blogspot.com/

Thursday, November 29, 2007

USD improving?

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The dollar came off highs against the euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's beige book report said the U.S. economy from October to mid-November expanded at a slower pace than in the previous period.

The report, an anecdotal summary of economic conditions nationwide, also said U.S. housing demand was "quite depressed".

The euro cut losses against the dollar to $1.4812 , from $1.4795 before the report. Against the yen, the dollar trimmed gains to 110.30 , from 110.40 previously. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Get Rich Quick Trading Forex - How to Do It In Simple Steps

Many people want to get rich trading forex and there is no doubt it offers the potential to do so but most fail. So is it possible to get rich trading forex? Absolutely - but you need to keep the following in mind before you try it.

When you read a lot of the material about forex trading writers almost consider profits as an after thought and stress the risk above all else. Well of course forex trading is risky we know that already but with risk goes reward.

Risk also equals opportunity.

Your aim is to take calculated risks at the right time and profit from them.

Anyone can learn trading and anyone can get rich but the facts state 95% of traders lose money quickly.

In 1983 trading legend Richard Dennis set out to prove anyone could learn to trade and be successful even if they had no experience - in two weeks he taught a group of all ages, both sexes and of varying degrees of intelligence, to trade and then gave them accounts.

The result?

They made Dennis $100 million and went on to become some of the most successful traders of all time.

So how did they do it?

Dennis realized that anyone can learn a method - but you must also be taught to understand why the method works, so you can trade it with confidence and discipline.

A simple equation for this is:

Robust Simple Method + Applied With Discipline = Forex Success

If you want to get rich quick trading forex it's not just your method you need to concentrate on it's also your mindset.

You are responsible and need to have confidence in what you're doing and then have the courage and conviction to take risks at the right time.

Here are some simple points to keep in mind when constructing any trading plan.

1. Get a simple robust forex trading method you can have confidence in

Forget complicated methods simple systems work best as there are fewer elements. to break.

2. Trade lightly

Focus on long term trends the big ones that yield the big gains. These only come around a few times at month at best but profits have nothing to do with the amount of times you trade. You don't get paid for effort in forex trading you get paid for being right.

3. Trade breakouts

Don't bother trying to "buy low or sell high" buy breakouts from new highs or lows it's a fact that the majority of big trends start from market highs NOT market lows.

4. Hit Them Hard

If you see a big opportunity hit it hard and that means risking 10 - 20% of your equity. Forget about the myth that you should only risk 2% if you have a $10,000 account that's just 200 bucks and you won't make much on that. There is nothing wrong with taking calculated risks - if you want to get rich in forex trading it's a must.

5. Don't bank early

Accept that you are going to have to take dips in open equity to catch a big profit.

This means having the discipline to hold and have the courage of your conviction.

Forex trading is essentially simple, anyone can learn the basics - the hard part is knowing when to take calculated risks.

Forex trading is as much mindset as method. You will only make money, if you have courage, conviction, mental discipline and an ability to be cool under pressure.

You can't buy success from anyone else, it's all on your shoulders and how successful you will be, will depend on how you apply yourself and how you deal with risk.

The fact is anyone can get rich in forex trading - but few have the mindset to stand alone and have the guts to take calculated risks and hold long term trends.

If you have the desire to make money, your halfway there - as you're likely to work in the right way, to make forex trading work for you. Forex markets don't defeat you can only defeat yourself.

The opportunity is there but it's up to you to make the opportunity work for you.



By Kelly Price, ArticleClub.com

November 19 - 23, 2007

Open Trades = 6
Floating gain/(loss) = (52.8571%)
Value of share = 1.2747 unit value


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Oil Closes at New Record; Nears $100 a Barrel

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures resumed their march toward $100 a barrel Friday, rising to a new record close in light holiday trading on concerns about tight heating oil supplies while also drawing support from a buoyant stock market.
Story
Tips to Saving Money at the Gas Pump

At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices retreated further from their most recent peak, falling 0.1 cent overnight to a national average of $3.086 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices rose sharply from mid-October until last week, but have fallen 2.6 cents since, countering predictions that gas prices were destined to add another 10 to 15 cents a gallon to catch up with skyrocketing crude prices.

Analysts now say gas prices are likely to hold steady or even slide a little unless oil rises beyond $100 a barrel.

Oil prices drew support Friday from heating oil futures, which set new records on concerns about tight supplies heading into the winter heating season. Inventories of distillates, which include heating oil, fell sharply last week, the Energy Department reported on Wednesday.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 89 cents to settle at $98.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, besting the previous settlement record by 15 cents, while December heating oil futures rose 1.68 cents to settle at $2.7042 a gallon after earlier setting a new trading record of $2.7181 a gallon.

Crude prices reached a trading record of $99.29 a barrel on Wednesday, and are within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.
Photos
Crude Realities: Oil Production and Politics

Heating oil prices are rising due to falling supplies at home and overseas, analysts said.

"The heating oil market, it's more of a global story," said Andrew Lebow, senior vice president of MF Global Inc. in New York. "Because of refinery problems in Europe, (supplies) are kind of tight."

Energy futures also drew support from Friday's rise in the stock market. Energy investors often view stocks as a proxy for the economy's strength, betting that a stronger economy will use more oil and gasoline.



By JOHN WILEN
AP Business Writer

European Central Bank chief warns of 'brutal' foreign exchange movements

FRANKFURT (AFP) — European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday he did not welcome "brutal" exchange rate movements, a few hours after the euro hit another record high against the dollar.

Trichet had used the word "brutal" in 2004 when there was a question of whether the ECB would intervene to stem an earlier rise by the euro against the dollar.

Earlier in Asian trading the euro had struck a new peak of 1.4928 dollars. The ECB chief also said that "abrupt and sharp" movements by foreign currencies did not favour global growth, reiterating comments made early this month when the bank left its main interest rate steady at 4.0 percent.

Trichet added Friday that he would discuss exchange rates during his forthcoming visit to China.

"I have an occasion to discuss with our Chinese counterparts the message we agreed on at the G7 (Group of Seven) on the emerging market currencies," he told reporters on the margins of the European Banking Congress here.

Trichet also said he "enormously appreciated" remarks by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that a strong dollar was in the US economic interest.

Many market observers believe that US officials are in fact content to let the dollar slide against other major currencies because it favours US exports.

Eurozone exports, meanwhile, are suffering from the euro's sharp rise in value against the dollar, yen and Chinese yuan.



Taken from http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5izIs8WYqxzLRUmdrKZIiJUc5NMYA

Saturday, November 17, 2007

November 12 - 16, 2007

Open Trades = 6
Floating gain/(loss) = (49.8313%)
Value of share = 1.2747 unit value


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Friday, November 16, 2007

USD rises on better-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing survey

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar strengthened a touch after the New York Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing survey showed business conditions did not worsen as much as expected in November.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank's Empire State Manufacturing Index was essentially steady in November, showing current conditions dipping only slightly to a 27.37 reading after a revised 28.75 in October, and above expectations for a sharper pullback to 19.00.

Within the survey, the prices paid index rose, to 42.86 from 36.05, it's highest level since 44.26 in August last year.

The strong survey offset a bigger-than-expected increase in jobless claims.

The Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment insurance in the US rose to their highest level in a month, to 339,000 new claims for the week ending Nov 10, an increase of 20,000 from the prior week. Economists were expecting 320,000 new claims.


Source: http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=53878217443098

Can China Dump the Dollar?

In an interview of the Washington Post with Brad W. Setser, the Council on Foreign Relation’s currency expert. One of answers he gave was pretty revealing in terms of what China can and cannot do.

It has been known for a long time that those countries that export heavily to the U.S. do not want to see lots of appreciation in their own currencies because that would make their products less competitive here. Among these exporters, China is the largest.

Setser’s point is that China is already struggling to prevent appreciation of its currency against the dollar. If China dumps dollars, then the dollar might fall and its own currency would probably appreciate versus the dollar, thus exacerbating a problem it already faces. In addition, China does not want to do anything that would help push the U.S. into a recession because when the U.S. economy slows, the rest of the world does too.

In conclusion, it seems unlikely that China would dump dollars. In addition, China will probably have to keep increasing its dollar reserves for some time to come.


Excerpt taken from http://www.fundmasteryblog.com/2007/11/15/can-china-dump-the-dollar/

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Dollar drops as U.S. growth fears dog market

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Wednesday as worries about the struggling U.S. housing sector and lingering credit problems weighed on sentiment, leaving the dollar's long-term downtrend intact.

Data showing U.S. retail sales growth slowed slightly in October, in line with expectations, and flat producer prices sustained investors' decisions to keep pushing the dollar toward record lows against the euro.

"Retail and sales and PPI at the margin support a weaker dollar," said Meg Browne, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "Retail sales supports the view that growth is slowing."

The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.4643 , within sight of record highs of $1.4752 reached last week. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell to the lowest level since April 1995, at 1.1178 francs before recovering to trade at 1.1243, still down 0.2 percent on the day.

Another prominent theme in the market was the rebound in investors' willingness to take bigger risks for a higher return.

Earlier this week, nervousness about the difficult lending environment caused the yen to surge across the board, rising to an 18-month high against the dollar as investors unwound carry trades, in which a low-yielding currency such as the yen is borrowed to fund purchases of higher-yielding ones.



Written by Nick Olivari, Reuters.uk

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

News on USD

Currency trading markets returned to dollar selling through the day’s forex price action, as a general recovery in risk sentiment allowed speculators to re-enter profitable dollar-short positions. Indeed, the overnight Tokyo session saw Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index recover marginally from the previous day’s rout, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added an impressive 160 points through time of writing. Whether or not this will risky asset rebound continues will remain key to dollar performance, but tomorrow’s significant event risk may likewise play a part in short-term greenback price action.

A busy international economic calendar left traders with plenty to talk about through previous Tokyo and London forex sessions, but actual price movements on economic data remained relatively limited. Notables included the closely-watched German ZEW report, which fell significantly below consensus forecasts yet was not enough to derail the recent euro rebound. In the UK we saw that domestic CPI printed slightly above official targets through the month of October—solidifying the case for stable interest rates and lending support to the recently oversold British Pound. The US economic calendar was comparatively empty, and the only notable on the ledger is the upcoming Pending Home Sales Report due at 15:00 EST, 20:00 GMT.

Limited event risk left forex speculators to trade off of general risk sentiment, and a sharp rebound in the US stock market allowed traders to continue selling the risk-sensitive dollar. Yet forex market trading was reportedly thin through the later New York hours, and it seems as though traders are increasingly indecisive over the short-term direction for major forex pairs. According to FXCM dealing data, open interest in US dollar positions has fallen across the board after recent market volatility. Given unexpectedly sharp price movements, speculators are increasingly reluctant to open large positions. That said, the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index reading continues to support US dollar weakness through short-term trade. The contrarian signal shows that the majority of retail forex traders remain long the US dollar against major currency counterparts. Yet we likewise note that the proportion of USD-longs has been shrinking through the past week of trade. Such developments suggest that dollar losses may slow through short-term price action.

Outlook for the dollar will likewise continue to depend on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rebounded sharply at +1.3 percent to 13,147 through the New York afternoon. Gains were broadly distributed across the majority of trading sectors, and the S&P 500 added a similar 1.3 percent to 1,457. The recently downtrodden NASDAQ Composite posted the biggest rally on the trading session—adding 1.7 percent to 2,628.

US Treasury market traders returned to their desks after yesterday’s US Veteran’s Day holiday and immediately sold short-term government debt. The 2-year Treasury Note Yield climbed 5 basis points to 3.48 percent. Yet the short-term bond yield remains near recent 2-year lows and will have to post substantive rebounds to recover last week’s losses.

Written by David Rodríguez, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Supermodel Bundchen Joins Hedge Funds Dumping Dollars

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world's richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar.

Like billionaire investors Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, the Brazilian supermodel, who Forbes magazine says earns more than anyone in her industry, is at the top of a growing list of rich people who have concluded that the currency can only depreciate because Americans led by President George W. Bush are living beyond their means.

Even after the dollar lost 34 percent since 2001, the biggest investors and most accurate forecasters say it will weaken further as home sales fall and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The dollar plummeted to its lowest ever last week against the euro, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan and the cheapest in 26 years against the British pound.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

November 4 - 9, 2007 Update

Open Trades = 6
Floating gain/(loss) = (32.6137%)
Value of share = 1.2745 unit value


Not a good week inforex as USD meltdown continues to haunt the market. The increase in EUR and CHF is not enought to cover the drawdown in the USD.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

USD: Another Record Low

The beleaguered dollar continues to plumb new lows across the board, hitting 2.0904 against the sterling and 1.4570 versus the euro. Sentiment for the greenback remains heavily bearish despite recent US economic not pointing towards the worst-case scenario of an imminent recession.

The latest string of upbeat reports included Q3 GDP, a robust labor market as evident in the October non-farm payrolls and yesterday's stronger than expected non-manufacturing ISM - which suggests another 25-basis point Fed rate cut may not be forthcoming. Deterioration in the housing market and credit concerns continue to be the Achilles heel for the US currency as investor nervousness over banks' balance sheets remain heightened. Uncertainty about the extent of further write-offs stemming from the subprime debacle will likely plague the greenback over the quarter.


Taken from http://www.truenorth-forex.blogspot.com/

Sunday, November 4, 2007

October 29 - November 2, 2007

Open Trades = 6
Floating gain/(loss) = (8.2571%)
Value of share = 1.2745 unit value

Friday, November 2, 2007

October 22-27, 2007

Open Trades = 4
Floating gain/(loss) = (12.6286%)
Value of share = 1.2645 unit value
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